The Loomis Launch: Energy, Optimism and One Complicated Electoral Equation

To an audience of roughly 150 to 200 enthusiastic supporters, Keanin Loomis officially launched his campaign for mayor at Ringside Hamilton.

Opening the event was Terry Cooke, no stranger to Hamilton politics, having served on Hamilton City Council before becoming Chair of the Regional Municipality of Hamilton-Wentworth from 1994 to 2000.

Cooke spoke confidently about his belief that Loomis is the right choice to become Hamilton's next mayor. His "big reveal," as he described it, was the result of polling commissioned by the Loomis campaign. According to the results presented by Cooke, Loomis holds a comfortable lead, with Andrea Horwath in second place and Rob Cooper in third. No other candidates were mentioned in the presentation.

Cooke was followed by Loomis's spouse, Trish, who offered a more personal perspective. She spoke about what it was like for the family to come so close in the last mayoral election and about the journey that ultimately led Loomis to decide to run again. She was warmly received.

Keanin then took the stage, delivering a roughly 15-to-20-minute speech intended both to energize those in the room and to begin making his case to the broader electorate.

He said the formal "listening" phase of his campaign has concluded and that he will soon release what he described as a "smart" plan for Hamilton. Loomis indicated that the plan will address issues including homelessness, roads and attracting new investment, among other priorities.

Loomis also highlighted the experience he has gained since the last municipal election, speaking particularly warmly about his advocacy work on behalf of Hamilton's steel industry. He reflected candidly on losing the 2022 mayoral election by approximately 1,600 votes and described the period that followed as one of grieving before he was able to regroup and move forward.

There were, as one would expect at a campaign launch, political jabs. Both Cooke and Loomis took aim at Horwath, Cooper and the current council. The intensity varied, but the criticism remained within the reasonable bounds of political rhetoric.

A campaign launch is intended to generate excitement and electricity. On that measure, Loomis delivered.

The more complicated question may have less to do with Loomis's qualifications or suitability for the mayor's chair and more to do with the electoral mathematics confronting him. Consider the 2022 election.

Loomis lost to Andrea Horwath by a narrow margin in a race that also included former mayor Bob Bratina. While Bratina may arguably have been in the latter stages of his political career, he still secured 12.3 per cent of the vote — 17,436 ballots. Loomis, meanwhile, finished only about 1,600 votes behind Horwath. The implications of those numbers are difficult to ignore.

This time around, there is Rob Cooper. Cooper is a sitting city councillor who, surprisingly to some observers, managed to win his council seat despite entering the race without the name recognition of several more established political figures. Some described his victory as having come "out of nowhere." Whatever one's assessment of Cooper, winning an election suggests that he understands something about the machinery required to organize a campaign and turn supporters into voters and.or that he has the know how behind him.

Horwath, meanwhile, has yet to register as a candidate in the 2026 mayoral race. Until she does, Hamiltonians have not heard from her as a candidate seeking another term.

There is also the question of how many votes the remaining mayoral candidates will attract — and, perhaps more importantly, from whom those votes will come.

The Hamiltonian has learned that Loomis and Cooper have never spoken. What does all of this mean? Perhaps nothing. There is still a long campaign ahead, and voters — not polls, political strategists or campaign launches — will ultimately decide who occupies the mayor's chair.

But the electoral arithmetic presents Loomis with a challenge. If multiple candidates compete for substantially the same pool of voters, Loomis may have to build a coalition significantly larger than the one that brought him within striking distance of victory in 2022.

In other words, he may have to win big. Very big. From speaking to key people surrounding Loomis, they believe that that is precisely what will happen.

Hope springs eternal and perhaps they are right in their assessment, Or, at some point, Loomis and Cooper may have to have a conversation.

Note: Our Publisher Cal DiFalco, attended the event for the purposes of this piece. The audience size was a visual estimate. 

A reminder that The Hamiltonian is neutral in our coverage. The only side we are on, is that of everyday Hamiltonians!