;;

Monday, April 17, 2017

M.P. Bratina- On LRT Survey Results

M.P. and long time friend of The Hamiltonian, Bob Bratina, had this to say about the results of the LRT survey: 

"The Provincial Government will now be aware of validated public opinion re LRT as they approach a difficult election. Council should now consider presenting options that benefit all area ridings based on the Premier's commitment to Hamilton transit funding. The Rapid Ready Document which calls for transit ridership growth as a precursor to future LRT. The Province made it clear that Regional Express Rail is now driving transit planning which could help accelerate half hour all day GO Train Service from Stoney Creek to the GTA, especially in view of the recent Federal announcement of $196 million in funding for the Burlington-Stoney Creek corridor."

29 comments:

  1. Eisenberger and Murray approached Premier Wynne on the premise that Light Rail was the preference of the majority of Hamiltonian's, and that implementing the technology would be an exercise in inclusion and universal support.
    Ms.Wynne took them at their word, called our collective bluff, and stepped up to the plate with the funding few believed could possibly materialize.
    "Go make it happens boys...."
    And here we are. I think Fred owes Kathy a sincere apology for the chaos he has created, yet doubt one is forthcoming.
    Maybe it is time for the Premier to address the matter specifically and unequivocally? Make sure "Uncle Ted" is sitting close at hand.
    I appreciate Mr. Bratina's perspective, it is encouraging to know there are Liberal voices in the area who remain committed to serving the constituents they represent.

    ReplyDelete
  2. A wise voice once said:

    "Policy by polling is a very slippery slope and resorting to it to inform the LRT debate is more a reflection of desperation than anything else"

    Jim Taylor

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. this poll was not conducted "to inform the LRT debate" but to reflect it. Do not like what you see?

      Delete
    2. Yes, I did.

      Jim Taylor

      Delete
  3. How does Hamilton's daily GO ridership stage up against daily B-Line ridership? How does the operating cost of LRT stack up against heavy rail? And which of the two needed to build ridership in order to rationalize a $1B capital investment?

    BTW, since the province is putting $1B into Hamilton transit, I assume that the federal government is doing likewise?

    ~ Wren

    ReplyDelete
  4. Someone once said ignore the people at your own peril. This is the second major project Mayor Fred has ignored the people so who is the problem

    ReplyDelete
  5. GO ridership between Hamilton and Toronto is 60,000 per day. I believe this is about double the B-Line daily usage. The Federal Government just announced a $36 million dollar contribution to HSR infrastructure.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A generous assessment, but I left the door open.

      So, respectfully: What quantity of that 60,000 daily GO ridership between Hamilton and Toronto travels by bus? What portion by rail? How many riders would you find on average aboard outbound trains between Hamilton's two train stations and Aldershot? And how does the average daily rail passenger count aboard trains travelling between Hamilton and Aldershot (and onward from there) compare to B-Line daily usage?

      ~ Wren

      Delete
    2. When GO train frequency approaches schedule levels provided by the current bus operations Metrolinx has the ridership projections. Since LRT would under the plan reduce service levels (e.g. removal of 15 HSR stops between Queenston Circle and Wellington)it is unlikely ridership would improve. So I would guess GO train and bus frequency at half hour service levels would move the 60,000 daily trips to well over 100,000, as opposed to the 30,000 on B-line with fewer LRT stops. The investments in GO Lakeshore West have been well-planned going back at least ten years when I sat on the GO Board. Hamilton LRT was not presented as a transit solution so shouldn't be confused with transit planning. It was supposed to be paid for by development charges against properties along the route, fuel levies, and other funding tools which nobody was willing to support. The sale of Hydro was their replacement.

      Delete
    3. Maybe I am just ignorant, but I am wondering the following:

      LRT, or BRT or HSR, is meant to transport people within the city. Go transfers people to another city. So why are we looking at these together and why would we want to encourage the brain drain that already happens with people leaving Hamilton for T.O.?

      I am sking honestly. I don't know

      From the sidelines

      Delete
    4. Hi Bob, could you please point me to your source for 60,000 GO trips between Hamilton and Toronto per day. I had not seen that number before. Thanks!

      Delete
    5. Again, MP Bratina, you're dodging the question.

      I asked a specific question about your quote: "GO ridership between Hamilton and Toronto is 60,000 per day. I believe this is about double the B-Line daily usage."

      You are making a reference to the current ridership capacities of two separate modes/services. And that — the here and now, not some colourful hypothetical like two-way, all-day service by 2013. Our existing reality is what I'm asking about.

      Absent evidence to the contrary, Hamilton's GO Train ridership is low. West Harbour's daily ridership (200 per day, five days a week) would fill two articulated buses with room to spare. The Hamilton GO Centre is better but still low: Three times as many use Burlington GO stations, because rail travel between Hamilton and Aldershot is pokey compared to driving, and if you're already driving to a GO Station minutes from the highway, it's as easy to keep going as it is to stop.

      This challenge was identified by Metrolinx four years ago, when the agency forecast daily ridership in 2031 for Hamilton's three rail stations.

      Confederation: 150 riders daily
      James St. N.: 450 riders daily
      Hamilton TH+B: 300 riders daily

      900 riders a day, 15 years from now.

      That's eight 60-foot buses in rush hour.

      http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/projectevaluation/studies/GO_Transit_Rail_Parking_and_Station_Access_Plan_EN.pdf

      These numbers suggest that fewer than 1,000 passengers travel between Hamilton and Aldershot by GO Train daily. And IIRC, heavy rail service is expanded to meet passenger demand, not on speculation.

      ~ Wren

      Delete
    6. "When GO train frequency approaches schedule levels provided by the current bus operations Metrolinx has the ridership projections."

      Are you suggesting that GO would cancel bus service on order to rationalize train service? Because a move like that would vastly reduce the convenience of the service. Also, can anyone tell me what GO fares will be in 2024?

      Campaigner

      Delete
  6. Good question from the previous post (from the sidelines). Personally, I don't have any faith in LRT taking off or doing well under our city. It has been decades and I am still waiting for HSR in the east.

    Since amalgamation, we have become a "mircowave" city. We focus all our heat to the core and allow the outsides to dry out and get burned. For those that need a more clear explanation - the city focuses all our money and investments in the core of Hamilton, where areas such as Dundas, Mount Hope, Stoney Creek etc... are contributing via taxes, and get nothing (no heat).

    If we are going to have referandum, I would like to see one to de-amalgamate.

    Donna

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "From their inception, regional governments such as Hamilton-Wentworth were highly controversial and unpopular. For instance, as former Regional Chairman Terry Cooke points out, the two-tier system of Hamilton-Wentworth confused lines of political accountability, or in other words, who was responsible for what. Such a system also allowed for the development of territorial or parochial politics that hindered the objectives of the region's overall development. As Sancton points out: "The Hamilton-Wentworth system was dysfunctional from the very beginning. The main problem was that the City of Hamilton, because of its high proportion of the regional population, always had more than half the seats on regional council. In the early years of Hamilton-Wentworth, suburban members would sometimes thwart the city by walking out, thereby preventing a quorum."

      The creation of Hamilton-Wentworth demonstrated the considerable problems of merging city and countryside. If the new central-city region was relatively strong, as was the case in the regional municipality of Hamilton-Wentworth, outlying areas felt that effective regional government would inevitably serve only that city's interest."

      https://macsphere.mcmaster.ca/bitstream/11375/11396/1/fulltext.pdf

      Noted

      Delete
    2. "If we are going to have referandum, I would like to see one to de-amalgamate."

      http://www.pressreader.com/canada/the-hamilton-spectator/20140203/281797101876934

      Noted

      Delete
  7. Interesting that when several hundred show up for a rally in support of the project, advocates use words like "massive" to describe the turnout.
    Yet when a very similar number of millennials are contacted, polled, and the results demonstrate a majority still in opposition, the same advocates describe the number as "puny" and completely at odds with the demographic they represent.
    Contradictory? Hypocritical? Desperate?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jim,

      At the height of participation there were approximately 500 people at the rally. I do not believe that they were all millennials or that anyone counted the demographics. Pretending they were all millennials is disingenuous at best. However, how many anti-LRT rallies have there been? What's the turnout like?

      ~Mountain Man

      Delete
    2. "several hundred show up for a rally in support of the project…Yet when a very similar number of millennials are contacted, polled"

      CBC Hamilton: "Nine councillors hired Forum Research to survey 3,324 Hamiltonians from March 30 to April 4. Of those, 131 were aged 18 to 34 and 1,391 were 65 and up."

      http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/lrt-poll-youth-1.4074190

      18-34: 131 respondents
      55+: 2,283 respondents

      17.4 senior citizens were polled for every millennial.

      Bresaola



      Delete
    3. 443 under the age of 44 were polled. Your point?
      This is the only demographic where you can claim "victory" yet want the results categorized as "unfair" Such strategy is unparalleled, yet symptomatic of the logic employed by advocates.
      Hey Mountain Man, how you making out with those "contingency plans" you were rummaging around for...been awhile now.

      Delete
    4. Point 1: 131 is not "several hundred"
      Point 2: When planning the future, maybe a good idea to ask those who have evolved beyond land lines. ;)

      Bresaola

      Delete
    5. yet 443 is, and remarkably close to the numbers purported to be in attendance at the rally.
      When wishing to have your voice heard, perhaps making yourself easily accessible is the key.

      Delete
    6. You said "a very similar number of millennials" in reference to the "several hundred show up for a rally in support of the project."

      What you presumably meant was "a very similar number of Gen X/Y/Zers."

      Bresaola



      Delete
    7. Millenials:
      "there are no precise cohorts for when this starts or ends;"
      Unless of course your parents named you "Bresaola" and you have an ill defined point to make.
      Is it "massive" or "puny"? Your choice.

      Delete
    8. Hope OHIP covers your splenectomy ;)

      http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/98-311-x/98-311-x2011003_2-eng.cfm

      Bresaola

      Delete
    9. So jim graham has been preaching far and wide that in his opinion, because the majority of "millenials" voted against LRT, this has meaning or relevance to the issue of Hamilton LRT. Now we find out according to jim, "millenials" means anything or everything he says it does because he cut and pasted:

      "Millenials:
      "there are no precise cohorts for when this starts or ends;""

      Handy "logic".

      Allan Graham

      Delete
    10. I know you 2 amateur demographers would prefer if I allowed you alone to frame the parameters for any discussion. Have we met?

      Delete
  8. Captain HamiltonApril 19, 2017

    The reaction to the poll is predictable. the losing side always attacks the poll. Still makes them the losers though. LRT lost. Live with it and move on.

    The Captain

    ReplyDelete
  9. Mr.Bratina,

    Slightly off topic, and please forgive me if I am placing you in a difficult position, but I am wondering if you would have any comment/insight into the apparent divergence between McMeekin "it is LRT- or bye bye to a billion" and Wynne "it is to build transit, you decide" which she reconfirmed earlier today.
    Regards

    ReplyDelete

Your comments are welcome. Please abide by the blog's policy on posting. This blog facilitates discussion from all sides of issues. Opposite viewpoints, spirited discussion and even pointed comments are welcome, provided they are respectful. Name calling is not allowed and any posts that violate the policy, will simply not be authorized to appear. This blog also reserves the right to exclude comments that are off topic or are otherwise unprofessional. This blog does not assume any liability whatsoever for comments posted. People posting comments or providing information on interviews, do so at their own risk.


Comments posted on this blog, may be used as excerpts in whole or in part, in other media sources .
This blog believes in freedom of speech and operates in the context of a democratic society, which many have fought and died for.

Views expressed by commentators or in articles that appear here, cannot be assumed to be espoused by The Hamiltonian staff or its publisher.